ALK chart, page-58

I realise that this is an impossible question, but what kind of price can ALK justify based on back of the envelope rough as guts numbers.
Let me try...and you can all set me straight.

580million shares on issue at todays closing price = $684,400,000

Expected production in ounces between 30,000 and 35,000 for the year. I choose 35,000 for the sake of the exercise, as they said it would exceed 30,000.
Guess the average price of gold for the past year ($USD 1400 - USD 1770 today) and take a stab at $USD 1570 (maybe someone has something clever to help here)
Average $AUD exchange rate - take another stab at .68.
These numbers produce a revenue of somewhere near $AUD 80,808,000
Published AISC back in March of $AUD 1351 (I guess mostly based on their open cut production, which is lower than the AISC for underground)
This leaves in the order of $AUD 33,528,000 before mining exploration and some other costs.

I should not equate this to profit, but if I did, we have a P/E of around 20 - completely apart from ASM spin off.
Obviously, if I tried to include their exploration and development costs, their P/E will be much higher - I think their NPAT was only $7.9million in the last half year, which would put their P/E at an astronomical 86 times on the current price.

The market is a forward looking animal, so let's do that.
Production to ramp up from 35,000 to let's say 45,000 next fin year, before hitting 50,000+ the year after
Australian exchange rate stays where it is (.69)
$USD POG stays where it is now ($USD 1770 -I think it will go up, but for the sake of the exercise, lets leave it there).
Capital costs rise - new open cut and underground mines - allow maybe $15m of their cash, so no impact on earnings.
If production is 45,000 ounces under these assumptions, revenue rises to $117,000,000.
I increase the AISC to $1500 - which leaves us $49.5million before mining exploration and other costs.

Then we have the blue sky - of Boda, and the cream of ASM demerger.
How much of the current share price reflects expectations of their success?

My question is - when will we have overshot our fundamental values?

Help please.