I know this is a chart page but I ask posters to indulge me because the narratives here seem to point to a familiar theme.
Hypothetical:
Assume I had deep pockets and no debt and the prestige house next door to my rental property fell by 50% in price being sold at auction at that low price, to establish an undeniable new "market price". Then it stayed at that price for a year or 2 or 3 while other suburbs went up, leaving me behind..
Would I:
(1) acknowledge my investment dropped by the same 50% and simply grin and bear it, and consider the long term, knowing my notional net worth is much lower? (HOLD)
(2) cut my losses and sell the house and chase another investment? (SELL) or
(3) knock on the doors of other neighbours and ask if they want to sell (to me) at the current 50% discount? (BUY)
Ummm, I'll take option 3 every time smelling an opportunity that might take another 3, 4 or 5 years to come good (knowing that is far from certain).
Now 10 years ago, many here held ALK at 40c and the price dropped to below 20c. We took option 3 and bought, waited 5 years or so, and watched ALK rise to $1.30 or so, we got issued ASM on a 1:5 basis for knicks, that rose in price to way over $10, and then, we, reverted to plan B (sell), with a much better than 20x return.
No one needed to pick tops or bottoms, simply buy at low points in the cycle and sell high points in the cycle.
WHAT IS REALLY DIFFERENT ABOUT ALK TODAY?
Not much. The price is in the toilet, people are frustrated and very annoyed with the same management team that made stakeholders a bomb.
I choose option 3 and then help the time pass by doing other things, not staring at the dailies and spitting chips.
Hint: Do this for long enough, and you will back a few losers but pick up so much more from the winners, it is not funny, it is surprisingly easy.
I am sure someone can put a long term chart together that would put in pictures what I have said in words. Computers are not my thing, so I will invite someone else to do it. (We used punch cards at Uni, back in the day. I haven't needed to progress much with IT to get where I wanted to go as a share investor. Investing is an artform, not a science, charting and TA sort of comes close to mirroring this, unless it is taken too seriously.
To those currently under water with ALK, step away for a bit and look at it from a different perspective. Who knows what you may then see?
GLTASH
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