The result, announced tomorrow, will be a compromise. As much as some would like to paint it as the end of the world, it won't be.
The price of $23/tonne has been widely speculated in the media. WHY? Because it is around that price at which gas-fired power becomes economic vs coal-fired power. There would be no point pricing carbon below $20/tonne. Sure, it raises revenue from coal. But no one would build any gas-fired power stations - which would defeat the purpose of the tax from an emissions point of view. So the price was highly sensitive to the economics of coal vs gas. Just enough to start migrating to gas, but no more. The least impost possible to coal without creating serious energy security problems for our existing baseload power industry.
I expect there will be concessions to LNG, and to coal-fired power. And maybe even coal exporters. Now, for all those who think Bob Brown is an extremist (and he may be - but it all depends on your perspective), consider that Bob Brown will sign off on this. It must have stuck in his craw to have to concede anything to "the polluters". But, he will. It is a sign of the increasing maturity of the Greens.
Remembering that The Greens, by compromising, are taking a huge political risk of their own. They are getting in bed with the enemy. They are being pragmatic. They are accepting that a lower price on carbon now, and more immediate emission reductions, is better than nothing. And many Green supporters will think the whole notion of compromise is treachery. it threatens to divide the whole green movement right down the middle. Ultimately, Bob Brown knows that they will not get a better deal out of the Coalition, so if they do want to achieve something from their policy goals, they HAVE the compromise.
The Greens' spin will be about how they are making the polluters pay. Labor will emphasise how they are taking action now on climate change, whilst emphasizing that 9/10 people will be no worse off. The Coalition will paint it as the death to the coal industry and our economy.
But the guts of it will be, a minimum price to get a whole heap of gas-fired power stations built, extra revenue for the Government, protection for LNG exporters, as Anthony, said some billions on renewal technology (The Greens will emphasize this bit).
It is a compromise. Not radical politics. Pragmatic politics. The sort of compromise that is needed to get the numbers through the parliment. It is the sort of package that almost 50% of the Liberals (those in the Malcolm Turnbull camp), supported in 2009, but are not allowed to vote for now. And, each party will spin it a very different way.
And, it will be excellent news for ESG. Opening up a whole new industry.
Yaq
ESG Price at posting:
65.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
