The competition that CCL has with its competitors is very low given that CCL has better than 60% of the soft drink market even in hard times. What tends to happen is that the two biggies screw the prices down of all its suppliers which drives down profitability. They both know that the brand sells the product and they must sell CCA's products to remain competitive themselves. It would be suicide if they just said "we wont sell CCA's products", so it's a bit "dog eat dog". What CCL is faced with is a depressed market and negative publicity in Oz (sugar). What they have done in trying to reduce cost is alternative packaging types but obviously that comes at some cost which needs to be paid back. So in short the company is headed in the right direction from a local market perspective.
I like others think that the increasing exposure to alcohol will yield dividends and push the SP up again.
The other consideration is Indonesia. The volume per head is very low (can't remember exact figures but 1 litre per year springs to mind). If you increased that to 2 litres per year (that's not much of an ask) the current production infrastructure couldn't cope given the huge population.
So the answer is alcohol and Indonesia, both of which are well on track to deliver.
BTW. I wouldn't get too hooked up on what's happening in the US. During the GFC, CCL stock fared well as a safety net.
Cheers
CCL Price at posting:
$12.41 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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