To get a range of share values, I postulated a range of revenue metrics, a range of NPAT/Revenue percentages, and a range of P/E Ratios that Mr Market may apply. Using 110M shares, I ended up with a matrix of EPS values in cents below each NPAT % selected, and multiplying by various P/E Ratios, I get a range of share values in dollars. As an aside, compared to NRW Holdings and MACA, Bierty's NPAT as a percentage of revenue has been low historically, but it appeared to improve in 2HY2014, and with a good Order Book, Brierty can resist the temptation to cut margin to the bone.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11 Column 12 Column 13 Column 14 Column 15 Column 16 Column 17 0 Rev PE 3.5% Value 3.75% Value 4.0% Value 4.25% Value 4.5% Value 4.75% Value 5.0% Value PE 1 EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS EPS 2 $320M 6 11.2c $0.67 12.0c $0.720 12.8c $0.768 13.6c $0.816 14.4c $0.864 15.2c $0.912 16.0c $0.960 6 3 7 $0.784 $0.840 $0.90 $0.952 $1.008 $1.064 $1.120 7 4 8 $0.896 $0.960 $1.024 $1.088 $1.152 $1.216 $1.280 8 5 9 $1.008 $1.080 $1.152 $1.224 $1.296 $1.368 $1.440 9 6 $330M 6 11.6c $0.693 12.4c $0.743 13.2c $0.792 14.0c $0.842 14.9c $0.891 15.7c $0.941 16.5c $0.990 6 7 7 $0.809 $0.866 $0.924 $0.982 $1.040 $1.097 $1.155 7 8 8 $0.924 $0.990 $1.056 $1.122 $1.188 $1.254 $1.320 8 9 9 $1.040 $1.114 $1.188 $1.262 $1.337 $1.411 $1.485 9 10 $340M 6 11.9c $0.714 12.8c $0.765 13.6c $0.816 14.5c $0.867 15.3c $0.918 16.2c $0.969 17.0c $1.020 6 11 7 $0.833 $0.893 $0.952 $1.012 $1.071 $1.131 $1.190 7 12 8 $0.952 $1.020 $1.088 $1.156 $1.224 $1.292 $1.360 8 13 9 $1.071 $1.148 $1.224 $1.301 $1.377 $1.454 $1.530 9 14 $350M 6 12.3c $0.735 13.1c $0.788 14.0c $0.840 14.9 $0.893 15.8c $0.945 16.6c $0.998 17.5c $1.050 6 15 7 $0.858 $0.919 $0.980 $1.041 $1.103 $1.164 $1.225 7 16 8 $0.980 $1.050 $1.120 $1.190 $1.260 $1.330 $1.400 8 17 9 $1.103 $1.181 $1.260 $1.339 $1.42 $1.496 $1.575 9
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