I've been clinging to the notion that KGN is going through...

I've been clinging to the notion that KGN is going through temporary troubles (mainly pandemic missteps) and that in time it would right-size itself and reap the longer reward in the shift to online shopping, turbo-charged by the pandemic.

But after re-evaluating my numbers, including inspecting the latest updates, all I see is more challenges ahead. Not only is KGN paying the price of chewing more than it could chew during the pandemic, management's much trumpeted longer term tail wind from the online shift, is looking more and more (to me) like a growing headwind. On my viewing KGN is losing market share, and meanwhile those whose lunch it was supposed to be feeding on, like JBH, are actually gaining share (on my viewing).

Here's the problem, the pandemic has not only attracted customers to the online world (though perhaps not to the degree trumpeted by KGN management), but it has attracted powerful, entrenched competitors who have greater brand resonance and hold greater trust. The latter dynamic is much more a headwind than the former is a tailwind, for KGN, in my opinion.

In summary, I just can't see the value stacking up against the current price, and frankly am mystified at how well it is holding up. The only gem I can see in the KGN arsenal is Mighty Ape (which KGN paid a fortune for). On my viewing, Kogan First is going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting to get the earnings where they need to be.

So I'm out. I hope I'm wrong (I often am) & that those that continue holding prosper.