all in the timing

I think it's fair to give this a 50/50 chance of being guzumped. The only non sovereign entity with the apricots to do it apart from Areva, would be BHP IMHO. If I were in their shoes, I'd wait until the 11th hour (keeping an eye on KAH acceptances along the way) and then drop a bombshell that would send the Chinese scurrying for the abacus. They can have me any day of the week for between $3-4 billion, and frankly this is a bargain for what will be 10% the cost of expanding Olympic Dam, and more importantly providing the means of controlling the price of the commodity for the forseeable future. It's a no brainer and a once in a lifetime opportunity frankly.