All Ord will settle at 4900 or 5900?, page-2

Where the charts go depends on how well or how badly nations manage their business continuity processes in the face of the actual risk.

Bureaucracies are slow to learn. People are slow to learn and they often react appropriately to presented risks

I would like to think that the ASX won't go below 5000 in current circumstances however the vicious cycle of under-reaction to over reaction and misdirection of effort by many key economies doesn't give anyone confidence.

A black swan is the likely catastrophic impact on global economies is influenza and a wide range of flu like viruses including the common cold corona virus. People with a bad cold won't know whether they have COVID-19 or not. How could they know? Very soon they will have to self isolate whether or not they have been tested. If your child has the common cold they will be at home with one of their parents as well.

If business is to continue on a relatively normal basis we will need to wear masks and safety glasses to prevent the spread of more common viruses. Cheap masks don't really protect the wearer but they protect everyone else from the wearer.

My takeaway is that because business continuity risks are being poorly managed ATM, markets will continue to fall. We can only live in hope that there are some global leaders around who are capable of thinking outside the box and that they act accordingly. Perhaps the others will then follow but I wouldn't count on it.