all ords to be 7000 by years end, page-16

I hate to post negative about the market but the US is entering recession if not already in it, please do some research on the last recession that occured in 2002 just after the september 11th attacks on US soil, you will see that the Dow fell from about 10,500 to a low aof about 7,500 in a less than 6 months, at the time the US housing sector was BOOMING creating a massive construction boom, this was certainly the main driving force to pull the US economy back up for the following 5 years and the dow had a powerful 5 year bull run which topped out at around 14,000 in November 2007.

We are now in early 2008 and again the US is again standing on the very edge of recession, if history is to repeat for the DOW the DOW could very well trade alot lower than current levels, what needs to be taken seriously this time around is the fact that the US dosnt have a booming housing sector to create jobs and lift them out of trouble, infact we all know that the housing sector in the US is falling at the fastest clip in 50 years, credit is as tight as a crabs bumb and as of friday had the worst job losses in 5 years.

Ben Benake is cleary stating on record that things are going to get worse before they get better.

I hate to be negative as i always like to be positive about things but with the extensive research that i have done on the US economy, im clearly not very comfortable with the next 6 months ahead of US, as more data is released each month from the US this will help us navigate what could lay ahead, but over the last 3 months every single peice of data has gone from bad to worse, 3 months ago the analysts said that the US would avoid recession, 2 months ago they said if a recession were to happen it would be short and shallow, as of friday the same people are now coming out and saying the US is already in it, Warren Buffet said also that its already in progress as GDP grinded down to 0.6% for the 4th qauter of 2007, im not going to argue with Warren Buffet.

So i have to say i would love to see the All Ords at 7000 by the years end but i think we will be heading alot lower which is hard to beleive over the next 6 months and hopefully finsih of the last 3 months of 2008 with some decent gains for our market.

Its going to be a tough year, just look at any big bank in australia over the last 4 months.

Good luck and safe trading