all paths lead to confrontation with santos

Here is why I think that the path to a hostile takeover attempt by Santos is inevitable.

We have seen that ESG has had to go it alone on the commercial front - they are having to do their own commercial deals without Santos. So Santos are clearly not a commercial partner. MOU's signed not as the PEL 238 JV (for which there isn't even a name), but just from ESG's share of the field.

So, there is no commercial partnership with Santos.

As such, it means that ESG has to forge ahead independently, and very likely will do a deal with one of Santos' competitors. So Santos end up owning 19.99% of a company who sells gas to Santos' competitors. Indeed, Santos help FUND ESG to sell gas to one of Santos competitors.

But, it has to be one or the other. Either you work WITH the company you have invested in, or that company has to play away from home and work WITHOUT you. And then, you end up funding an investment that supplies gas to your competitors.

ESG is the ESG of Santos making. You don't want to help commercialise our gas, fine. You don't want to work cooperatively from within ESG's board, fine. You don't want to mention Gunnedah if you can help it. And you certainly don't want to promote our value or talk about our massive reserve, or the possibility of a pipeline northward. FINE.

So Santos get the ESG they deserve. The ESG of own Santos' making.

As you can see, the myth of Santos as the 'pure investor' cannot be correct. It leads to an untenable situation (coming soon) where ESG commits gas to Santos' competitors.

That is why common sense investors realise a Santos bid is coming. And unlike QGC where Santos took a knife to a gunfight, this time Santos are raising more cash, divesting assets and have debt facilities lined up.

Yaq

(But, as we know, there are those who REALLY don't want people to believe this. They do not want ESG's price to rise ahead of this bid. Such ideas as these are just too threatening. That is why they draw so much attention.)