I will clarify what I said above re: resource...

I will clarify what I said above re: resource estimation.

Hydrocarbons will migrate to the surface and pass into the atmosphere unless they are sealed in.

Seismics only identify POSSIBLE sites for hydrocarbon accumulation based on geological structures that could stop this upward migration and allow hydrocarbons to accumulate.

We have only 2D seismics and hence cannot estimate the total volume of the potential trap though we can get a rough guess.

Estimates of resource based on seismics are arrivied at by multiplying a guestimated volume by a guestimated porosity by a guestimated usable gas concentration.

Actual concentrations and porosity can be assessed only when a well is put down. At this time the lowest level of hydrocarbon find and height of water (if present) can be assessed. This can then allow us to get a good idea of reservoir size, though is only a ballpark figure. With 3D seismics a fairly accurate estimate of reservoir volume can be made at this stage, with 2D a much less accurate estimate is possible.

One well does not tell you about the porosity of rock at distance from the well and will not tell you the extent of the find. One well will not extract all the hyrocarbons from a reservoir at commercial rates.

Once several wells have been sunk a more accurate estimate is possible, though the change in resource estimate is likely to be correct within a factor of two from the first well. (ie the actual resource could be anywhere between half and double the estimate resource from 2D seismics and a single well.

Also of note several potential pay zones are centred a significant distance from this well and estimates are likely to err very much on the low side for these.

I agree the SP is difficult to predict until we know how big the gas interval will be. I do however doubt many informed investors and even fewer institutional investors will be paying $3 per share no matter how big the potential resource until flow tests are through and we are close to production.