All time high, page-117

Please help me out why you think Prices are holding well. there was no change to day that is true. But in 3 weeks Nd has dropped from 635 to 617. 3 % in 3 weeks. Now Lynas separates very little Nd the majority of there ND is shipped as NdPr.

NdPr was 628 a little over 3 weeks ago to day 594 a 5 % drop. A bigger drop per week.

Now on an earnings perspective both Nd and NdPr could drop to 500 RMB / KG and Lynas would still have record setting profits. Not as good as 2021 but still above the average for the 3 years before that. In Fact they would not have a loss till below 400 RMB so it would take a 35%+ drop to cause red ink. So prices are fine right now. 3 weeks is way to early to see a trend. For me the concern is 'is the marketing softening"? It would have to drop another 50 RMB in 6 to 8 weeks for me to say yes to that. Lynas will still do fine but if the market is soft there returning to 100% and adding to supply might cause market to fall to point there is little gain from the production increase. When a market is stable it only take a little change in demand or supply to cause fairly good changes in prices. Not saying this will happen just it is something to watch.

A good thing to rember is 5 RMB is one AUD. Lynas is shipping about 5.5KT on NdPr products a year. so a 5 RMB drop in price is 5.5M AUD less profit. just makes it easier to keep the numbers in perspective. so they had 117 in profits last half. i am sure you can figure out how much NDPR would have to drop. H2 was much better than H1 so I use it rather than yearly numbers it is much more favorable to Lynas.