Right now I see no effect for the year ending June 2025 JMO The simplest reason being that they will have no revenue from Blue Line till after that point.
Here are some of the things I am seeing.
On page 28 of the 2019 2025 plan it shows Blueline starting in Late 2020 and ending late 2022. Then they Joined forces with US gov. Just last week they summited plans for approval to the US government. Now unless Gov has changed considerably since I worked with them I would not be surprised If it takes a year of back and forth before approval. I see start maybe end of 2022. But I do not know because the 2020 and 2021 updates had no schedule or any sort of info on how these were going. You may disagree but as a Project manger I always suspected major problems when some one did not update me clearly.
Next someone else publish a news report where the locale town manager was asked what they thought of Lynas coming. He did not know who Lynas was or what REE was. This means zero prep has been done with locals. I doubt the permitting process will be clean and easy once US Gov approves plans.
Two projects that are slipping allot are KAL C&L and PDF. KAL is suppose to be very friendly yet still no permits to start hard work. ( I know the reasons why but late is late no mater how good reason sound) PDF of course is in Malaysia. not exactly friendly but Lynas has lots of experience. After 18 months of time Still no finale permit and now maybe a restart on a new site. Again slips I put on management. I put this all together and I do not see any significant Revenue from Blue Line Lynas till late 2025 and possible a couple of years after that. I sincerely hope I am wrong I hope we receive good updates at GM for all projects. Have even written suggesting it. Nothing would make me happier then Lynas releasing info that says I am wrong. But until they release some solid info my life experience says I should assume, Good things are not happening. Most people usually love to tell you about good things.
I do not want hard dates I would be very happy with updated timelines like they show on PG 28 2019 pres. With just a statement that says, We think this accurately represents where we are now. They did this in 2019, why not do it in 2020 and 2021 or this years GM?
Here is the MOU for blue line. can you find any product volumes or descriptions?
https://lynasrareearths.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/190520-Lynas-Blue-Line-MOU-for-Rare-Earths-Separation-in-the-USA-1931006.pdfHere is the 2019 presentation most of the info on Blueline is on PG 23. I have watched this subject carefully never have I seen descriptions or volume estimates. If you have any please post them. Many people on this board say what a great source of revenue it will be. How can we know?
https://lynasrareearths.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/190521-Investor-Day-Presentation-Lynas-2025-1931391.pdf
(20min delay)