Current price IMO reflects a few things, New CEO yet to prove himself Reduction in proven reserves from latest weak flow rates Expansion plans and lighter oil flow causing some to doubt cash will fund and may need to raise People selling as they need some money (volumes are pretty light though)
It can all be put to bed quickly if 1) JRP can get some deals done without raising - split upside on a few new well drills and 'co fund" etc. or 2) If the new wells produce solid flow rates - oil stays steady(+/-10%), its materially higher in a few months, AS IS. 6More wells are coming soon.
If JRP adds acreage without raising capital here, or does get a capital injection for a big parcel of land at current levels, or the financing structure involves options exercised at higher levels a few years out, IMO it goes materially higher. Personally another 10-20% dilution if doubling acreage to a strategic investor (Fund manager) im fine with.
Im long plenty and just sitting tight awaiting news. Frankly buying or selling here make no sense until we see their next drill result or they announce a deal. The market is never patient... people will always pull money and put into something else. Im pretty sure these guys/gals wake up everyday go to work and drill for oil, the SP can and will be irrational for a while.
JRP asked for 6 months to get it all going, wait or dont. Im fine waiting for the next update.
FDM Price at posting:
9.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
