Many EV maker stocks still have a sky high valuation, while the companies are much less profitable, if at all, than Allkem is right now. The selloff is completely unjustified, unless you believe that the high inflation will last forever and the global economy is about to go into a deep recession for a long time. Inflation in Europe is mainly driven by high energy costs, while in the United States it is less driven by higher energy prices and more by other factors like a lot of fiscal stimulus during the pandemic, robust consumption and a wage-price-spiral. Inflation in the US will likely go down earlier than in Europe, because the energy cost problem will last longer.
"The bank expects the annualized inflation rate to get cut in half over the next few months."
But ultimately the global economy is flexible enough to adapt to the tight energy supply situation with Europe and Russia. Russia will sell a lot more energy raw materials to Asian countries, especially China, and Europe will buy more energy from other countries. There will be winners and losers, Some countries will pay more for energy and other even get a discount. But this is not going to collapse the global economy.
Since I could be affected I looked up what the current levels of stored gas in Germany are. They are rising by about 0.5 % a day and are not at the lower end of the range from the last years. 100 % would be enough for 2.5 months in Winter if there are no additional gas inflows from anywhere. And I guess that 2.5 months figure doesn't even take into account all the levers that can be pulled to save energy. And even if the situation, in which gas has to be rationed would occur near the end of Winter, then it would be where the financial damage is minimal. I think in other comparable European countries like the Netherlands the situation is similar. Btw. today I heard in the news that Germany wants to receive the first liquified natural gas via a mobile terminal in the port city Wilhelmshaven before Christmas. This can help over the Winter and is basically light speed given how slowly things usually move forward.
Since many EV models globally are sold out for 6 months up to 18 months, we should look more at the supply side for bottlenecks instead of the demand side, since the order backlogs for EVs are so enormous. I think in the end it will be like the chip shortage. Most of the negative impact is on ICEV production and sales and a fraction of the impact is on EVs, while EVs might profit in the long term, because every ICEV not sold is potentially an EV sold, since demand for mobility doesn't just go away and the more financially unatractive the ICEV business becomes for OEMs the faster they will try to make the transition to EVs.
