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02/03/22
22:54
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Originally posted by Egeria
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Repeating the same logic with different assumptions and reflecting correct economic interest.
Spodumene usd2,500/t leaves enough margin for converters selling bg chemicals at usd30k/t
Bg carb: usd30k/t
Tg carb: usd20k/t (leaves enough margins for plants upgrading and selling bg carb at usd30k/t)
Bg hydroxide: usd35k/t assumes hydroxide premium returns
Catlin: 190ktpa * usd2,500/t = usd475m
They confirmed on the last quarterly call 190ktpa will be the runrate going forward.
Oz S1: 11.6kt bg carbonate * usd30k/t = usd348m (being ake's 66.5% share of the 17.5ktpa targeted bg capacity once s2 is commissioned and s1 is dedicated to bg production with debottlenecking)
Oz S2: 16.6kt tg carbonate * usd20k/t = usd332m (being ake's 66.5% share of 25ktpa targeted Oz s2 tg capacity)
Naraha: 7.5kt bg hydroxide * usd15k/t = usd112m (being ake's share / 75% economic interest in naraha and only taking into account the incremental value from selling hydroxide at usd35k/t less usd20k/t cost of tg carbonate sold by Oz 2 noting transfer pricing will require sales at market value)
All up annual revenue at full capacity across all projects works out to be usd1.27bn ~aud1.76bn
Aimo
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...and if we look ahead a bit further, add SDV 30ktpa carb and JB 300ktpa SC, we can probably double that revenue figure.
AUD$3b....?
In round numbers, call it $2b ebitda and whack a P/E of 15 into the mix.... sp = several multiples of the current value, easily, imo.
Build it Martin. The time is now.