Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

AKE

Click for more information

0.00%

$9.83 allkem limited

Allkem General Discussion, page-82

First 82 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
findinggems

3,069 Posts.

904

08/12/21

08:17

Post #: 58146071
Share

Originally posted by GCar ↑

G'Day FG,

Here are some rough numbers as a starting point...

Naraha:
10ktpa Hydroxide
= circa 8800tpa LCE

Using an estimate of about 0.9kg LCE per kWh:
8800tpa / (0.9kg / 1000kg/t) / (1000000kWh/GWh) = 9.78 GWh
Say about 10GWh...?

Not sure what the capacity of the Toyota plant will be though:

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...n-battery-plant-in-north-carolina-175913.html

If, say, the 200,000 "hybrids" each had a 20kWh battery pack (e.g. Rav4 Prime @ 18kWh), then that would be about 4GWh...?

Sounds like an expansion of the factory (to multiple production lines as stated in the article above) could easily consume the output of Naraha....?

That may help a bit...
Cheers

Expand

Originally posted by triage ↑

struggler - as I posted recently there are about 60 car brands in the Australian market (more than in the US or the UK) but Toyota monsters the market, with 23% of sales. To put it another way, there are about 59 car brands in Australia fighting over 77% of the market.

finding - in the article they indicate that the North Carolina factory will be building batteries for hybrids as well as EVs but I could not see any mention of any metrics that would allow us to estimate the amount of lithium the NC factory would need.

In any case I doubt the NC plant would use Naraha Li hydroxide. For one, my understanding is the lithium hydroxide is a bit unstable / prone to degrade so the idea in building a hydroxide plant in Japan was for it be used close by in NE Asia (the other option in the mix was to build it in S America). I reckon they will have no issue selling Naraha lithium hydroxide in NE Asia (with a fair chance of it being used in the battery plant that Toyota and Panasonic are proposing to build near Naraha). Another reason why I doubt Naraha product is destined for North Carolina is based on my basic grasp of geography. NC is on the Atlantic side of the US and Japan, of course, is on the Pacific side. Supply lines using non-sea hauling can add costs, delays and risks.

I suspect Toyota Tsusho, given that its job is to procure supplies for the mothership, is smart enough to join the dots between Allkem having James Bay and Toyota needing lithium in North America. On consummation of the Orocobre Galaxy merger the boss of Toyota Tsusho stood down as a director of Orocobre but he would have been a player in the decision by Orocobre to merge with Galaxy. I seriously doubt that the merger was all about James Bay but the TT dude would have seen the potential synergy. In the AGM presentation Allkem say they are "investigating vertical integration of James Bay with a downstream conversion facility". What's to stop Toyota Tsusho and Allkem doing another Naraha type deal but in North Amercia.

PS I was just reminded of another problem they have with Olaroz. At an altitude of 3,900 metres, where Olaroz is, all the chemistry is warped. For instance up there water boils at about 85 degrees celius.

Expand

Thanks @GCar and @triage

triage - I did mention that I assume that James Bay may possibly end up supplying the Li chemicals for the Toyota North Carolina battery plant in one of my posts :

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/58131023/single

The expected timeline to production also stack up ... James Bay start of production in 2024 and Toyota plant in 2025.

Agree that hydroxide has a very short "shelf-life" ( was it 30 days if I recall ? ) and degrades when exposed for a prolonged period of time to air / atmosphere. Hence, they have to be in a tightly sealed bag, but even then, moisture penetrates it.

Galaxy, even prior to the merger with Orocobre, was already in talks ( don't know who ) about a conversion facility in the North American region as per what Simon Hay mentioned months ago.

Now we need to calculate the output of James Bay in LCE terms ( don't have it at the top of my head, but I am sure I read it somewhere ) and what are the assumed output of the Toyota plant.

Side track :

Speaking of lithium hydroxide, I did not realise until a few years ago ( chemistry was one of my weakest points even when I was in school long time ago ... possibly because it was mostly 90% theory versus 10% practical / lab ) that NASA also uses lithium hydroxide to remove CO2 from the air in the space station since decades ago :

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/teach/...s an attractive,heat produced by the reaction.
https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/519347main_AP_ST_CO2Removal_Therm.pdf

2 LiOH(s) + CO₂(g) → Li₂CO₃(s) + H₂O(g)

Granted that these are just in canisters and low volume, but interesting nonetheless.

AKE Price at posting: $8.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
11 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 5,070 more messages in this thread...

First 82 Last

Add AKE (ASX) to my watchlist