All's not well in China

The extraordinary graphic at the bottom of this thread's previous page shows how quickly China has become the world's foremost trading nation.

the original source was cited but more recently the graphic was used again by emeritus Professor John F. Copper on July 29 in a piece published in Pearls & Irritations, John Menadue's Public Policy Journal, entitled "China, the global trading giant."

in the piece Prof. Copper summarises key points in China's emergence as the pre-eminent global trading nation, an extract from and the conclusion of which is reproduced below.

JOHN F. COPPER in PEARLS & IRRITATIONS:

"In 2001, China joined the World Trade Organisation to formalise its reforms and take advantage of specialising in products it could export and thereby earn foreign exchange and gain global influence.

"The year 2008 was a turning point. The world, including the United States, owning the top global economy, experienced a recession. China did not. Further, President Obama oversaw what was almost America’s worst recovery ever.

"In 2009, China became the world’s largest exporting country.

"In 2013, it became the planet’s biggest trading country, passing the United States.

"In 2014, China’s gross national product made it number one worldwide if calculated in purchasing power parity (a metric used by a host of international organisations).

" In 2015, China’s spending on research and development matched the United States.

"In 2016, China registered more patents than the U.S.

"Meanwhile, China became number one in the world in foreign exchange. It passed the U.S. in auto production. It bested American in steel production by several fold. It was graduating eight or nine-fold the number of graduates in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and medicine).

"In the past few years China overtook the United States in artificial intelligence, quantum physics, robotics (with more than half of the world’s robots working in factories), and much more. This predicted China would soon best the U.S. in military capabilities. As noted in the chart above, China has far surpassed the United States to become the world’s foremost trading nation.

"In 2023, China was the top trading partner of 120 countries. (There are reportedly 206 countries in the world, 193 in the United Nations).

"This gives China enhanced image. It facilitates its diplomacy and its media reach. It alone makes it a large power.

"But it does more than that because China’s trade has been favourable (meaning it exports more than it imports), giving China a major source of foreign exchange. This, plus China’s high saving rate and less expensive government, enables China to grow its military budget, spend more on R&D, and provide vast economic assistance to friendly nations.

"(Incidentally, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has passed $1 trillion in giving. Washington’s largest project ever was the rebuilding Europe after World War II, which amounted to just over 100 billion in today’s dollars).

"The U.S. concurrently faced a huge debt. Paying the interest on it means increasing the defence budget, spending more on research, and giving more foreign aid has become difficult to impossible.

"I do not apologise for saying back then (in the 1970s) that China was not a leading country in terms of national power capabilities. I was not wrong. China made record speed to change that.

"Some American leaders, not to mention, many pundits, warn that China will soon pass the U.S. to become the world’s number one power.

"Some say it is already too late; China is number one."

John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor (emeritus) of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tennessee. He is the author of more than thirty-five books on China, Taiwan, and U.S. Asia policy.