Almond Market Update, page-2

I'm not surprised that management didn't release this report to the ASX as they would have risked being prosecuted by ASIC for misleading the market. As it is, they would still be at the top of the opportunity list for Maurice Blackburn and their like.

The fact is that the California Almond Board's report does not support the view that consumer demand has been increasing. The rise in export shipments is more likely due to the Spanish crop falling 11% below expectation and distributors re-stocking after holding back on purchases when the almond price was falling.

The evidence from the US indicates no improvement in demand with shipments down 13% but SHV explain this away as a result of last year's higher prices - IMO an absurd argument. They then make the bold assertion that the "The North American market will rebound later, beginning in summer and increasing through Q4, as more attractive consumer pricing slowly works its way onto retail shelves" - they now think they can predict the future with absolute certainty.

They also make reference to a moderate improvement in prices but provide no quantification, so safe to assume the improvement is small. We already know that prices have only recovered 5% of the 50% fall from their peak (which is the same as a 10% increase for anyone that thinks I am trying to mislead), so I'm guessing that the spot price is still around that level.

With supply continuing to increase and no hard evidence of a rebound in demand, there is still plenty of downside risk to the almond price.

SHV management is living in fantasy land.