Almond price, page-7

I can understand why some may have concerns around tax-loss selling given the time of year, but in recent years, Select has had a pretty good track record over the May-June period.

For example, in May to June of 2013 the share price held steady. Last year in this same period the share price actually rose, from $9.00 in early May to $11.00 at the end of June.

2014 was the exception: Over May-June in 2014 the share price fell from just over $6.00 to $5.00.

However, it should be noted that the share price crash in May 2014 was driven by concerns that the company was not going to fully complete their harvest as a result of the bad weather conditions that year.

But it is obvious the company won't have this problem this year: On the 6th of April they announced that they had completed 90% of the harvest. The weather in April was ideal in all of the regions in which they operate, so there is no reason to believe the harvest would not have been fully completed by now.

In addition, over the past month the Australian dollar has fallen by 3% against the US dollar. The AUD has fallen by even more against the Indian Rupee, dropping by about 4% in a month. Most of Select's almonds end up in India, so it is always worth keeping an eye on the Indian Rupee.

The fall in the Australian dollar was of course mostly prompted by the interest rate cut by the RBA, which should also reduce the interest expenses of the company.

I also have a suspicion that there might be an upgrade to the 13,700 tonne crop estimate.

So overall, I think there is reason to believe that there will probably be some good news in the next announcement by the company.