Some of those Indian websites that provide irregular updates on...

Some of those Indian websites that provide irregular updates on the almond price (such as this one) have been reporting a further increase in the almond price in recent days.

If these reports are accurate, the almond price is now sitting somewhere between Rs 17,200 and 17,500 per 40 kilos, which converts to around AUD 8.75-8.90 per kilogram at the current exchange rate.

On the topic of almonds and India, apparently almond production in India's almond growing region of Kashmir has fallen dramatically over the past five years, with climate change the possible culprit. Kashmir used to produce over 1% of the world's almonds, but in recent years production from the area has fallen from over 16,000 m/t to just over 6,000. This no doubt partly explains why India has proven to be such a good market for Select's produce. My understanding is that around 13% of India's almond supply is currently being provided by Australia.

Kashmir is not the only almond growing area facing challenges, though. The three largest almond producing regions are currently under pressure from a range of issues:

* California looks like it is going to have a decent crop this year, but interestingly the RPAC website makes the  observation that the nut set per tree this year was actually the lowest in years. So it would seem that the estimated increase this year is simply down to the large number of plantings in 2014.

The large number of young trees in California are, however, vulnerable to disease such as phytophthora, which could be a significant problem for farmers in the north of California as a result of the flooding earlier in the year. In addition, US farmer are under increasing pressure from rising labour costs, which will probably eventually flow on to the almond price.

* Australian almond production for 2017 ended up being circa 82,000 tonnes according to the Almond Board of Australia, which was about 6% lower than the initial estimate for the year, due to the impact of extreme weather.  In addition, as mentioned in an earlier post, many Australian growers are facing higher expenses due to the soaring power prices, which may put some growers out of business.

*Finally, In Spain the recent detection of the plant disease Xylella fastidiosa in a Valencia almond orchard is naturally worrying for farmers in that country. It remains to be seen how widespread the problem is, however.

In short, there are plenty of reasons to think that that the almond price might continue on in an upward trajectory in the months ahead.