ALPHA - GTP, page-2

Hi middle,

I can only offer my opinion of course but 57/58 c is the 61.6% retracement for the recent rise from 51c to 71c.

As you will notice on the charts this level is holding solidly and has attracted strong buying support through the last few shocking trading days.

Further, there don't seem to be many sellers willing to sell at current prices - certainly not below 57c and they would have had a few opportunities yesterday if they wanted to.

I am very bullish on this stock (in fact the whole listed bluegum forestry sector) as you know, but this says to be that 57/58 is a very safe entry point. This is especially so in the light of the undistributed profit dor the last year of approx 6cps which gives an implied yield at this price in excess of 10%.

TIM's shareprice is being driven to some extent by a number of bullish procker recommendations I have seen and no doubt these were driven along by news of TIM's export joint venture with ITC though subsequently TIM's share price seems to have lost a little steam.

Personally, I don't think that the market was overly enthrawled by GTP management indicating that the 30c special dividend was enough reward for last year and that they wanted to retain the profitto fund possible acquisitions and to broaden the business base.

I think there is some sceptisism about ompanies that move away from their core business in the current market climate and paid dividends and a proven ability to generate more are being given much more credence than suggestions that a business might be about to move into new areas.

This no doubt helps have GTP trading at only two thirds nta backing.

That said, there are a number of what appear to be very interesting distressed asset sales and vastly undervalued operations in similar forestry fields on the market at the moment and something that produces an immediate net positive increase in the companies nta and is cashflow and earnings positive immediately would have to be welcomed.

Management has been flagging for a while that they have some ideas in mind and I can only presume from the time they are taking that they are proceeding with caution after the special dividend debarcle.

All in all I think this company is a very safe place to have money parked in the current market.

yes, I do have quite a lot of GTP shares.

Cheers