Key Takeaways from Peer Comparison: MLX looks undervalued vs. Yunnan Tin but in line with smaller peers.
EV/EBITDA (~3-5x) suggests MLX is cheaper than global tin miners.
P/NAV below 1.0x means MLX trades at a discount to asset value.
If tin prices hold above $30,000/t, MLX could re-rate higher to a 10-12x P/E like Yunnan Tin. That would imply a 20-30% upside in share price.
DCF Valuation Based on Tin Price Scenarios: Estimate MLX’s intrinsic value using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model.
Production of ~8,000-10,000 tonnes of tin per year
Tin price scenarios: $25,000/t (bear), $30,000/t (base), $35,000/t (bull)
Operating costs and discount rate (~8-10%)
DCF Valuation Results for MLX (ASX: Metals X):
Based on the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, the estimated fair share price of MLX under different tin price scenarios is:
Bear Case ($25,000/t tin price) → $0.52 per share
Base Case ($30,000/t tin price) → $0.89 per share
Bull Case ($35,000/t tin price) → $1.25 per share
Current MLX Share Price vs. Fair Value
If MLX is trading below $0.89, it's undervalued under a reasonable tin price scenario.
If tin prices stay above $30,000/t, MLX could justify a valuation closer to $1.00+ per share.
MLX Price at posting:
66.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)