Already fully valued ?, page-138

Still interesting to look at the 2 opposite trends :
- main shareholder selling (D.Mintz and 2 directors recently),
- while the company continue to show impressive figures in the short term (cf July sales and August traffic).

The main question is probably how long Cettire can sustain such a level of growth.

We know that the personal luxury goods market was estimated at 345 bn Euros in 2022 (source : Bain), with "some 400 million customers in 2022" (vs 423,000 active customers for Cettire).
However, the targeted market for Cettire is more what's defined as the gray market for luxury products*, estimated at 8 % by Bernstein in 2021.
So, we can estimate Cettire's real market at 28 bn Euros or 47 bn AUD.
Cettire has a market share of only 0.9 % of the estimated global gray market.

The global luxury brands do not like this gray market as it impacts the brand image that they have been building for years.
However, they have not really found a way to prevent the companies, like Cettire to develop.
In fact, the only effective way to end the gray market would be to stop the wholesale market for luxury products, which does not look very realistic.
But, the luxury brands continue to increase the control of their distribution, which is a way to fight the gray market.
According to a recent sector study on the luxury sector**, we can see that the share of wholesale keeps going down : from 72 % of total distribution in 2010, to 60 % in 2019 and 50 %e in 2022.

To summarize the situation, Cettire keeps increasing its market share, while the potential to buy products in the wholesale market is decreasing.
However, even if Cettire was to multiply its sales by 10 times (to 4 bn AUD), it would still represent less than 1 % of the total global luxury market and 1.4 % of the wholesale market.

So, for now, there is still a large opportunity for Cettire as :
- the wholesale market remains very large compared to Cettire size,
- Cettire is also taking market shares versus other gray market operators (ex. Baltini in Italy, Italist in the US).
Looking at the last 3 months, Baltini has increased its traffic by 16 %, while Baltini has reduced its traffic by 14 %.
Both are far from Cettire which has increased its traffic by 70 % during the same period (while it is much bigger than these 2 competitors).

* market which is not controlled by luxury brands, as the gray market operators are buying products on the wholesale market.
For a great article on the luxury's gray market, you can have a look at an article in The New York Times in 2021 ("luxury's gray market" via Google)
** "Renaissance in uncertainty"