Alternative Metrics, page-1013

Yep that was before I saw the half yearly. 

Being right is easier than being right at the exact right moment. We will have to wait to see whether your instinct was right. I'm happy to forgo a possible say 4% further rise rather than risk say a possible 40% drop. Both will probably happen in the next few weeks - months. I'd rather be roughly right then specifically wrong. 

Well 1% profit is better than 40% loss. If it drops 10% or 20% and I buy, then I've effectively made 10%. 
But I'll actually save 4% against my mortgage, which is the equivalent of a 6% profit after tax.