ALU Chart, page-135

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Paddy0

1,363 Posts.

144

06/05/20

08:10

Post #: 44454199
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Originally posted by Greynomad73: ↑

Your suggesting I'm saying there's an equal chance it will go up or down, and if that's how you read my post I obviously wasn't clear enough. I'm saying the chart has made a couple of pattern's suggesting there might be a good trade - if the pattern progresses as it would be expected to. Anyone who thinks there's never a potential for sh-t to happen is a fool and any good chartist looks for the alternative to a positive analysis - so as to be ready to act if things don't go as planned. People who don't have a clue about charting (or trading) read these posts and see only a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. I'm simply saying the light at the end of the tunnel could also be the train coming.
Charting is all about weighing probabilities of one event happening against another and the chance a share price will go up or down on any given day is 50% - the toss of a coin. The fact I'm holding the share should suggest I have confidence that the probability of price rising is greater then the probability of it going down. But you are right - both probabilities exist.
Over the years I've seen comments such as the "it might go up, it might go down" many, many times and they are usually by people who think chartists dance naked under a a full moon and who won't allow themselves to consider the possibility charting might actually have something going for it.

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so if it goes up what price does it go up to and with what probability? same question with down and sideways? Do the lines tell you that?

ALU Price at posting: $35.01 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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