Disclosure, I hold this stock.
Altium is undervalued significantly. Let me explain. Keep in mind, all these values are in USD. For FY22, Altium stated that they would be in the top-end of their guidance ~18%+. This means we are looking at an EBITDA of $77M USD, which is $107M AUD.
Let's take a look at WTC. They are expecting around $270M EBITDA. Now WTC will have $100M CapEx unlike ALU.
So looking at FCF, WTC is probably expecting $170M, with revenues growing around 20-25% (which is partly fuelled by acquisitions).
WTC is valued at $18B while Altium is at $5B. I estimate it will take around 2-3 years for Altium to reach WiseTech's current level based on their existing growth rate and the massive adoption of Altium 365. That's when operating leverage starts hitting. So in 2-3 years that is a return of 330%, annualized at around 60% IRR.
TLDR: Buy Altium. It will be huge.
ALU vs WTC (Altium Undervalued)
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Last
$67.33 |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $8.882B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $67.35 | $67.39 | $67.27 | $41.33M | 614.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6719 | $67.32 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $67.35 | 32411 | 3 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 07/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$67.34 |
Change
0.000 ( 0.14 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $67.36 | $67.39 | $67.26 | 151380 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 07/06/2024 ? | |||||
| ALU (ASX) Chart |