TBR 4.62% $3.40 tribune resources limited

Am I missing something??

  1. 59 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 72
    Just perusing October announcements/reports for Northern Star v Tribune

    Some key side-by-side observations are

    NORTHERN STAR
    1. Increasing Costs
    2. Diminishing Reserves
    3. Overseas Operations - POGO is a disaster with with failure to reach forecasts and more bad news to follow
    4. Executive Chairman - $2.23M + $2.9M in performance rights = $5.5M (this is astonishing but in 2008 it was $7.4M!!!)
    5. Insider Trading - Executive Chairman stockholding has reduced 70% in the last 3 years
    6. Revenue Growth - 2018 Y-O-Y 11% (I forecast this to be negative in 2019 with POGO downside)
    7. Market Performance - 1 Year 17.5%
    8. Share Price - increasing volatility (IMHO overvalued)

    TRIBUNE
    1. Diminishing Costs (- except at the EKJV where their partner NST have inserted themselves as the Mining Contractor)
    2. Increasing Reserves
    3. Overseas Operations - Africa and the Philippines are very underrated deposits. TBR just need to navigate the political landscape to make massive shareholder returns (IMHO)
    4. Executive Director - $383K (must be a record low for a performing stock on the ASX)
    5. Insider Trading - Executive Director stockholding remains steady
    6. Revenue Growth - 2018 Y-O-Y 32%
    7. Market Performance - 1 Year 52.4%
    8. Share Price - low volatility (IMHO undervalued)

    Why does the market treat NST as a darling and TBR gets very little attention. Is this the result of simple PR and marketing? From where I sit I see TBR as an organisation that adheres to fundamentals of business - simply reduce costs, and maximise profits.

    With the US-China divide, for me, Gold is the historical safe haven to retreat to. I am considering taking a holding in TBR as I feel confident they have a low downside due to such cost controls. Am I missing something?
 
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