So we all saw the headlines: "Kasiya Largest Rutile Deposit Ever"There is approximately 18,000,000 (18 million tons) tons of pure rutile in the deposit.
And somewhere around 26,000,000 (26 million tons) tons of Graphite in the deposit.
18 million + 26 million =
44 million tons of materialI so happen that i know a thing or 2 about heavy sands, and i believe this would fall into that category.
Even as a worst case scenario (If they got to build their own spurr lines etc) We are looking at no more than around $50 per ton to get this material out, concentrate it, then ship it.
44 million tons X $50 =
2,200,000,000 (2.2 billion dollars)
If we are being unrealistic, the plants/machinery/infrastructure to do this will cost
2 billion dollars. And this is probably an extreme over estimation.
So therefore i think we can say that at the very most, to completely clean out this deposit
(including transport/machinery/plants/labor/etc) should cost under around
5 billion dollars. Now rutile itself is worth somewhere around $1000 per ton.
And the graphite is worth at least $500 a ton (If we are NOT being generous)
18,000,000 Tons Rutile X $1000 =
18 Billion dollars. 26,000,000 Tons of Graphite X $500 = 13 Billion dollars. 13 Billion dollars (graphite value) + 18 Billion dollars (Rutile value) = 31 billion dollars31 billion dollars - 5 billion dollars(Costs) = 26 billion dollars. (This is the value of the deposit, minus the costs to extract it)
Current Market cap of this stock = 300 Million dollars (That is 300 "Million" with an "M")
There is about 86x 300 Millions in 26 billion.
But of course there needs to be some dilution to pay the 5 billion of costs. So let us say that there is a 20:1 dilution.
IE For every 1 share that exists today, 20 new shares are issued. So let us say you own 1 twentieth the proportion you buy today after dilution...
So the market cap would become lets say 6 billion dollars. But there is 26 billion in resources...
So if we divided the deposit value (minus costs) 26 Billion dollars by market cap (6 billion dollars). We get 4.33
So call me crazy, but even making unrealistically mean assumptions, shouldn't this stock price in all fairness be at least 4X higher over time?
Am i missing something here?
(20min delay)