HI GuysGiven the usual quality of the analysis on this forum I...

HI Guys

Given the usual quality of the analysis on this forum I am suprised:

1. There is so much negativity about a stock that whose profits have gone from $7.5m for a year to $22.5m for three months

2. Realise there has been an industry wide sell down in commodity stocks and of course AVM is not immune

3. Realise that with big sellers exiting or reducing postions (Miningnut being one - understandably given his slightly overweight position I would guess!) it would put a cap on the shareprice short term. Also did no one notice Rand Merchant bank exercise those 400,000 $5 odd CAD warrants they got for free for the 2nd tranche of Dikilushi Financing. Don't you think they may have been selling? (adding to the killing they made out of the net smelter royalties)

4. Fully analysed the last presentation.

I had a look at it just in passing since I have researched the company throughly and thought there would be nothing new but of Particular interest I noted:

1. For the first time with Kulu they said they were on track to exceed the production target of 16,500 to 17,000 tonnes of copper production for 2006. As far as I am aware that is the first time they have mentioned this outperformnce (though you could have extrapolated it from the 2nd quarter results) and bodes extremely well when you consider the slow ramp up in the 1st quarter and the shut down in the 2nd quarter due to the unrest.

2. For the first time they gave us some quantantative data on that Western extenstion of the 3rd ore body of tshifufia central deposit ie more than 75 metres. I am certainly no geologist but assessing the data out of the FIN data report and the announcement in November last year leads me to believe this at least doubles the width of the ore body to the west. Now when you consider it had close to 200,000 tonnes of copper indicated and inferred and that was only down to 100m(!!!!) and I estimate was only 60m in width (west/east), and the Nov 2005 drilling had hits all the way down at least another 300m, and was open in various directions you can see how exciting these results could be. Perhaps another signal was BT talking about a 65-70k per year SXEW plant for Kinsevere. For that type of expenditure and sized plant you would need a resource 7 years+ at least ie implying a resource greater than 500,000 tonnes of contained copper.

So kwehrend, I can understand your impatience but please stop whining on about how this stock never moves (you do get a bit boring). A bit like the movie, "if you build it they will come". Stocks are similar, if management consistently increases earnings per share, the shareprice inevitably will increase accordingly, it is only a matter of time.

Quite frankly although lack of shareprice movement can be annoying, it does not worry me in the slightest if the company's underlying performance is as superb as Anvil's has been andlooks like it will be going foward. Inevitably the market wakes up, I've seen it happen heaps of times. (have to be patient though sometimes - ie Bought a few million TOX at 3.5 cents and had to wait a few months before it went firecracker - but fairly pleasant when it happened)

Then if they get real popular, they get a beautiful p/e re-rating and then you really start to make some money - or of course they get taken over at a substantial premium.

So roll on those drilling results, any guesses for the resource upgrade to the tshifufia central deposit?? - It was about 195,000k indicated and inferred in Nov 2005.

My guess is a resource now of 600k (could be wildly inaccurate but hey - no lives at stake)

Also we should get something out on Dikilushi deeps as well

Well thats my 2 cents worth, any other punters willing to put their guess for the resource upgrade for the rest of us to see?

Cheers

J22