I've owned AMA since before the Blackstone bid and despite being well underwater now have been adding this past week.
Despite the troubles and distractions, I feel the business is fundamentally in a good place.
CEO issues no doubt spooked the market, but total exposure to the company is immaterial.
Comparative being Boyd Gerber in Canada https://www.boydgroup.com/ trading almost back a pre-covid levels, AMA looks to have stronger REV/EBITDA margins (but also more leveraged) notwithstand when you de-lever it looks to be about the same.
New CEO appears focused on effeciency and normalisation before any more expansion, although I'd expect opportunistic acquisitions to be considered if can be financed through existing capital.
TCL report last week confirmed traffic volumes back to normal everywhere but VIC.
Long thesis: change in vehicle technology will be a headwind for smaller operators (expensive equipment required to deal with all of the new car tech). Repairs will in the future be more plug and play than repair, better suited to bigger operators who can streamline process. The bigger market share captured by AMA, the more negotiating power they have with insurers.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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