Hi MrZoom,So, at these levels (Sp @.16c) are you buying if you...

Hi MrZoom,

So, at these levels (Sp @.16c) are you buying if you genuinely believe the industry and company in particular are still set for a great year?

A rebound to normal levels of activity is one thing, but on the other hand, I believe there is currently a precipitous drop off occurring in both the number of people using their cars, and for those considering purchasing a new vehicle, both of which are things that feed directly into AMA revenues/profit.

When looking at a company, I believe it's extremely important/prudent to consider the macro environment around the company, how that will affect it's day to day operations and then also look at how the company is managing levels of debt, etc.

When taking the above into account, it's clear the company is going to be extremely stretched. At these levels, the market is unquestionably betting on the business to fold now.

You need to understand that if a company extends itself by way of significantly increasing its liabilities, it puts the business in a significantly more vulnerable position in the event of further declines in revenue/profit...and this current CoronaVirus event will hurt AMA (and a number of other businesses with too much debt) incredibly hard.

I can't see how AMA can now: A) repay it's current debt obligations ~375m, especially in a climate where reductions in claims are likely to fall significantly and B) raise capital to even provide for much needed working capital.

I am a shareholder, so I'm on you're side, but can't see the business coming back from here.

Unless this CoronaVirus issue resolves in several weeks, I give AMA until the end of April at best before receivers are called in.

Happy to hear your comments, but it's incredibly unlikely to come back from here - you're better off going to Crown and betting on black at this point!