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12:18
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Originally posted by alfredo9:
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Agree. By the end of the year we will probably be wondering what all the fuss was about. AMA is the biggest repairer in Australia, by far. Acquisitions are on temporary hold but will resume. The banking covenants are free of testing til the end of 2020 and will be subject to looser strictures in 2021. Work in the pipeline is secure (hail damage enough for months) and before long vehicle movements will increase and thus repair volumes will rise. China is opening up and parts supply is no longer subject to interruption. Suncorp has given them better pricing. IAG will follow. NZ will come out of lockdown in a few weeks. Australia was not locked down and it is obvious now that it will never be, so by next month all shops in both countries will be working. At the macro level, the systemic stock market correction will abate this year, if not sooner then later. On the bourse, buyers have outweighed sellers for the past month. A couple of weeks ago AMA reached a peak of 3x its bottom and now trades at better than 2x the bottom. Even so, it is still only one third of the capital raising price of $1.15. Just getting back to that price would see a rise of 200%. The current PE is 15 against an industry average of 24 and forecast to fall to 12 by June and 7 by June 2021. Except for short term fluctuations, I cannot see it going anywhere but up.
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Also AMA temporarily shut down some sites through part of April. This has allowed them to apply for Job Keepers. Once approved Job Keepers goes until the end of September. If lock down finishes soon & business can get back to normal relatively quickly, across around 4,000 staff the company has, that is an extra 3 million dollars to the bottom line each week until October!
