If they hit commercial oil in Surprise ST1 they will probably...

If they hit commercial oil in Surprise ST1 they will probably follow up with an appraisal well on the same structure but don't get too excited. JW and Surprise structures are not connected and JW didn't have commercial oil anyway so to suggest that there is somehow an 8km oil leg between the two is wrong IMO.

And Surprise is only a small structure, perhaps a few million barrels recoverable oil. It won't be the next Cooper because the reservoir development just isn't there. The best outcome we can reasonably hope for is a few new Mereenies and Palm Valleys.

My best-case scenario for CTP is that they hit commercial oil in Surprise which both restores market confidence and provides cashflow for more drilling and more seismic. Then they use that cashflow to put down wells into every one of these prospects you see on the maps in CTP's presentations and any new ones revealed by seismic. Drilling is a numbers game and as we know well, generally only about 10% of wildcats are a discovery - in the Amadeus with its poor reservoir characteristics it's probably less. The ONLY way CTP is going to find anything in its Amadeus ground is to keep putting down wells.

At the same time keep chasing a JV partner for the shale who is willing to put a few shale wells down a la BKP. Speaking of which, a good result from the upcoming BKP frac should almost guarantee such a JV for Central.

As for the coal, flog it off down the pub to some bloke for ten bucks and a Winnie Blue for all I care.