RediMoney, you are correct as it was confirmed on the ABU...

RediMoney, you are correct as it was confirmed on the ABU website's list of top holders. TAM no longer appears on the list. They are no longer a top 40 holder and the exact number of the crossing you mentioned to TAM's previous holding makes it almost certain that TAM hold no more shares now.

FireHawk, good post and very likely to explain the recent trading. Just one thing to add;
Those index tracking funds do seem to sell on the day- I have seen it often enough but I have heard (and you can see it in the trading) that they have a much larger time to buy in so you don't get the same buying pressure in one day when its added to an index, as you see selling when it's removed.
The buying is gradual, the selling is not.

POG is very volatile right now which was always to be expected around the FOMC meeting. This drop again was thanks to a fed member saying a taper is always possible for next month. What a joke the whole thing is! What a complete and pathetic (and should be criminal) scam and manipulation. We can only guess how much insiders make out of these regular comments that push markets up or down on just a few words.
If we ignore the volatility these guys create and look at the fact that the global all in cost of production is around $1200, and in South Africa (call it marginal gold supply) it's around $1500, then you would think at least $1200-$1300 should be a long term base case support for gold. Any lower than $1500 sustained POG will see lower production as marginal production shuts down or is not replaced by new similar cost mines. GS has $1200 long term and they are bears on gold (atm at least - they seem to change from bears to bulls to suit their trades).
With ABU's grades coming in well above guidance so far and second bench grade results showing very strong grades set to continue, it is becoming clear that the first full year of commercial production will result in much more gold through the plant than would have been expected for 10 or 12g/t. Not only will revenue increase strongly but costs per ounce will fall as a result. If you ignore the wild sentiment swings and emotions of the gold market and look at the results to date, it becomes increasingly clear that ABU is likely to see very strong profits and that those profits will not be at significant risk from POG volatility like they are for the marginal producers.
Everyone can do their own estimates, but I now have ABU on a forward (stage 2) PE of just 3.1 after changing head grade assumption to 15g/t (and I have not dropped my cash cost assumptions yet) at spot gold and spot AUD ($1325 and 94c). I think if gold does fall back toward $1200 (and that’s a big IF IMO) then AUD will likely also fall after this latest rally and offset gold falling with little impact on profits for ABU. That 3.1 PE is based on just the initial small 150,000tpa plant. I have left cash cost at $500 BEFORE royalties which will be way too conservative at anything above 10-12g/t. At 300,000tpa, a lower 12g/t head grade assumption and $400 cash costs (again conservatively before applying royalties); I have a PE of just 1.6.
The basic numbers for that are; 300ktpa at 92% recovery and 12g/t results in 106,500oz. With gold at $1325 and AUD at .94 I get revenue of $150mill. After applying cash costs I get operating profit of $107mill before royalty. Deduct depreciation of 3mill (capex depreciated over expected LOM), exploration of $12 mill, admin of $5mill and sustaining capex of $1mill results in profit of $86mill before royalty. Royalty brings it down to roughly $70mill. Large carried forward losses will likely mean no corporate tax for a number of years. $70mill profit on a mc of 110 is a forward PE of just 1.6. BARGAIN!
Even the 3.1 PE at 150,000tpa is dirt cheap on a lower risk open pit operation with very low gold price risk, very low country risk and no debt (plus a likely expansion to follow). Reported taxable profit is likely to be lower after applying carried forward losses but the cash flow will not be affected. This remains my personal number 1 choice for exposure to the gold market- or for exposure to any market. With the gold market I know its been very depressed so less significant downside risk compared to most other markets and much more upside potential when its ready.