Amazing deal with NBC, page-12

This is where your calculations are wrong -

Net win margin is sustantially lower in the US, compared to Aus. You need to turnover a lot more revenue to achieve the same amount of net win revenue.

Revenue growth in the betting industry only increases with an increased advertising budget. There is always a new business entering and gaining market exposure. You have to constantly advertise to gain market exposure and grow. Sales growth correlates with reduced advertising.

You will never halve your advertising budget and grow at 30-40% per year.

Credit Suisse calculated similarly to my estimates, this deal will be break even in 2025 (yes when the NBC deal ends). So this business will be burning cash on advertising to hopefully gain market exposure and not spend as much on advertising after it finishes. But it's a funny industry, as soon as you stop spending cash on advertising, another business spends more and overtakes you. So you need to hope that the US market enjoys/prefers the service.

Your assumption only applies to a business that has a different product (usually a niche market or market leading). I.e. gain maximum exposure via advertising and then scale back on the advertising.. the product will sell due to lack of competiton or differentiations in the products/service. In this case, another competitor gains more exposure via advertising and grows faster. The products are very similar, punters usually follow the best deals at the time. High churn rates.

Its a capital intensive industry that usually only the largest businesses only dominate (most capital backing).