Hi holdersToday I saw the greatest chart ever prepared on RFE,...

Hi holders

Today I saw the greatest chart ever prepared on RFE, there were amazing FACTS, and to me this clearly says RFE is being played with and probably has been for some time. I.e. up to 3 years!!

I hope the supplier of the chart doesn?t mind but I will break the chart (which I can?t post)down in to raw data, this made my head spin, you will be very surprised.
The supplier of this chart will remain anonymous but he does post on HC.

Ok, the first set of figures will relate to SP activity around RFE reserve upgrades.

1) Start with an anchor point, 2/10/06
Share base of 56,750,000
Total equity in the business $9,091,881
Receipt from sales $244,000
No proven reserves at the time.
The SP opened at 25cps

2) 27/6/07 RFE release maiden reserve with 10.4Bcfe 2P reserves
The previous trading day, 26/6/07 closed at 56c, by 18/8/07, less than two months later, the SP hits an intra day low of 40c. The SP then bounced off what we will call the 37-40c support level.

3) 16/10/07, one year on from our anchor point, RFE upgrade their 2P reserves to 36.4Bcfe.
The previous trading day, 15/10/07, we closed at 61c. By 31/1/08, less than 4 months later, the SP bounced of an intra day low of 38c, once again we dropped down to the 37-40c support level.
Share base of 71,618,782
Total equity in the business $8,453,262
Receipt from sales $698000

4) 4/9/08 RFE upgrade 2P reserves to 41.3Bcfe. The previous trading day, 3/9/08 closed at 50c, by 3/2/09 we fell to an intra day low of 16.5c, this is effectively our GFC support level, the 16.5-18c range.
Share base of 91,543,283
Total equity in business $17,339,131
Receipt from sales $1,250,000

5) 3/9/09 RFE upgrade 2P reserves to 72.8Bcfe. The previous trading day, 2/9/09 has a close of $1.27. By 27/5/10, an agonising 10 months later, low and behold we hit an intra day low of 37c, incredibly in the 37-40c support level again.
Share base 116,968,000
Total equity in the business $25,831,996
Receipt from sales $1,048,000

6) 14/9/10 RFE upgrade 2P reserves to 143.14Bcfe. The previous traded day, 10/9/10, closed at 48.5c, by 6/10/10 we hit an intraday low of 39.5c, incredibly once again in the 37-40c support level.
Share base 139,532,000
Total equity in the business $46,254,896
Receipt from sales $2,789,000

So, what do we take from all that.


All announcements regarding reserves, 1 maiden reserve and the 4 subsequent upgrades have resulted in RFE being pushed BACKWARDS to support levels, 4 times in the 37-40c bracket and once to the GFC level of 16.5-18c level.

The share price just before these reserve announcements, 4 out of 5 times has been in the 48.5c to 61c range, the other coming off our company SP highs in August 09.

How can this be, reserves are released roughly the same time every year, but almost every time we have been in the same trading range on release and then we always drop to the same support levels.

Any chance RFE is being professionally worked over??
Could this in theory be classified as the 4th year of this ongoing saga??
Now we have hit our support level low of 39.5c on 6/10/10 this is the accumulation phase before the next rise, we could say RFE is a legitimate screaming buy at 41.5c, 2c of our low.

A few more stats from these figures that suggests management is doing the right thing by shareholders.

Results from 2/10/06 to 1/10/10

Share base ? increased by 145.87%. There is still a remarkably small number of shares on offer even after that increase, can?t be sure but another capital raising unlikely, only additional shares to be issued this financial year will be 1,666,000 management options to be exercised for 30c each on 30/4/11. This will be a minor overall % increase and will bring in an additional $499,800 cash.

Receipt from sales ? increased by 1043.03%. This figure will only continue to grow.

Total equity in the business ? increased by 408.75%, once again this figure will continue to grow, especially once we become cash positive.

From 27/6/06 to 14/9/10 RFEs 2P reserves have increased by 1276.35%. This figure was coming of a low base, but each year the 2P reserve figure has exponentially grown; selective drilling this coming year should continue to grow these figures rapidly.

So in the last 4 years it is obvious RFE is moving forward, all these numbers are growing rapidly, which brings me to the last stat in this section, the SP

In these 4 years, with massive gains in just about every area bar the share base, RFEs SP has moved from 25c to 41.5c, a whole 66% increase.

I rest my case here, RFE has realistic values of $2 per share at the moment, more than anything be aware of these figures if you are considering selling at this level, your shares will only go to someone who more than likely already knows these facts and probably manufactured this level, they are looking to suck out as many shares off GENUINE shareholders as they can.

This is not financial advice, just an opinion based of charts and figures.

This next section, once again gleaned from this incredible chart, relates to the very opposite, announcements relating to flow rates or wells being tied in and the increase in SP they bring on, especially if the SP has hit the support level after reserve upgrades are released.

1) 4/10/06 announcement re major milestone in Oklahoma CBM program. This referred to wells coming on line and also has some flow rates. The previous trading day closed at 27c, by 18/12/06, less than 3 months later the SP had an intra day high of 50c, some nice gains there. This announcement wasn?t after a reserve release as we didn?t even have reserves at this point.

2) 17/5/07 Red Fork commences Extensive Completion Program, work starting on completing 12 wells and tying in to sales at Osage. The SP the previous trading day, 16/5/07, was 39c, less than 4 months later we hit an intra day high of 68c, once again another good gain, but seemed to encounter what we will call a resistance level of 65c.
Once again this was before our maiden reserve announcement.

3) 24/4/08 Red Forks Osage CBM completion program delivers. This announcement refers to wells being tied in and producing. The 2007 reserve upgrade low or support level was obtained on 31/1/08 at 38c. The previous trading day to this announcement 23/4/08, closed at 45.5c, by 22/5/08, less than 1 month later the SP had an intra day high of 60c, will call this the 65c resistance level again.

4) 11/3/09 Pivotal flow tests deliver threefold upgrade at East Oklahoma. I remember this one, great news, stabilized flow rates from EOK wells upgrade potential from 100,000cfd to 300,000cfd. The low of the 2008 reserve upgrade was 3/2/09, the GFC support level.
The previous trading day to this announcement, 9/3/09, closed at 23c. By 6/8/09 the SP hit an intra day high of $1.51. Do we remember this?

5) 8/6/10 Success at West Tulsa with Moebius #3-28, this announcement was referring to the latest successful well at West Tulsa and referred to 3 wells ready to be completed for production testing and bought on line. The 2009 reserve upgrade didn?t drop down to the support level until 27/5/10, that painful low. The previous trading day to this announcement, 4/6/10 had a closing SP of 44.5c, by 27/7/10, less than 2 months later we hit an intra day high of 68c, once again around the 65c resistance level.

6) this part hasn?t been written in stone yet but as of today, 8/10/10, we have already hit our support level low for the 2010 reserves, the quickest this has occurred. What we need know is an announcement referring to flow rates or wells being tied in. Going on what we have outstanding, the EOK Central wells are the most likely to be the next wells on line, a lot of these wells are at 640 acre spacing, holding the land by production, meaing we can then move on to increasing reserves and drilling at West Tulsa.

If this is indeed the next ?major? announcement then we could quite easily expect to quickly recover to at least our first resistance level, 65c, depending on how good the announcement is we will hopefully break the back of this resistance level.

My only concern is what price level we will be at when 2011 reserves are to be released, will we be in the 48.5-61c range and therefore more than likely drop again to our support level of 37-40c or will 2011 be the year to eventually realise our true SP potential and stay at that level.

Good luck holders