I had a brief and bad experience with Commsec when Sanford was...

I had a brief and bad experience with Commsec when Sanford was bought by them. Bell has been much better.

For long term UOS holding, a conservative valuation could be much simpler. With the expected ramp up in value of property developed, assume NPAT 12c/share attributable to owners of UOS (roughly 8c-12c over the last few years) and a conservative PE of 10 (roughly 3 times deposit interest rates of 3.5%), giving a valuation of $1.20.

I think NPAT/share is likely to average well above 12c over the next five years, and I think PE should be closer to 12-14, but there are some factors which might prevent it trading at higher PEs, such as key person risk (both managers and builders), political environment in Malaysia, lack of tax benefit on UOS dividends, and the fact that most of UOS earnings are fed back into the UOADB DRP.

On your calcs - sorry to be pedantic, but x1.49% is very different from x1+49%, and UOS doesn't have 78% of UOADB - I think it's 68%.