I agree with you about the oil assets having served a purpose and would also like to believe their necessity is coming to an end.
Something I see as a key point that doesn’t get mentioned much is how the Notes issue has shifted $100m debt off the Australian business’ balance sheet and attached it (non-recourse) to the US operations. So even if their values are only half the estimates the oil has done the clean energy division a recent service.
As a result I imagine when PB speaks to potential investors like Roman the Russian he tells them the clean energy company they are looking at has very little debt (whether you think that's stretching the truth is a different point).
I am following closely as the recompletion works as they do make it difficult to calculate the probable daily gross values as you mentioned. Assuming the target for the end of the quarter is reached however, there should be minimal future debt attached to the Australian business divisions, also thanks to the oil.
On a side note I find the current hedging arrangement another point of interest. The hedges were in play due to the RBLF which has since been paid out and replaced with an ABLF (with a much lower limit) with money from the Notes issue. On the hypothetical that the hedges are no longer necessary the $4.5m liability they caused in the last quarter should be erased which will do much for the current balance sheet. I don’t know how binding the derivative contracts are?
Interesting times.
LNC Price at posting:
61.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held