I don't usually wade into these arguments, although I enjoy reading them. I will add my 2 cents worth.
I think Howard's emphatic endorsement of the future war against Iraq has nothing to do with Iraq and everything to do with a continuation of an Australian foreign policy based on the stark fact that we cannot defend ourselves and must be a satellite of a more powerful protector. Previously this protector was Britain, at least up until 1942 and their defeat in the far East by the Japanese. Thereafter, as everyone here must be aware, we have looked to America for our protection. We live in a region which is rearming at a terrific pace and, with modernisation, is also narrowing the gap in technological superiority that we at least, formerly, could rely upon.
And since Australia gave up its intention to acquire or build nuclear weapons of its own (when Gorton lost power), we have had pretty well to rely on diplomacy alone to preserve our nation. More than ever it seems that we must rely upon a powerful friend, and who more powerful and more similar to ourselves than the USA? So what Howard is saying when he says he's ready to jump in with Bush into Iraq, he's actually saying: "We are here for you, any time, just as we expect you to be here for us. Please protect us. Please."
Thus, in my opinion, it is nothing to do with the situation in Iraq. The Iraqis certainly pose no direct threat to Australia, and there are few similarities between that country and, say, Nazi Germany in terms of their capacity to wage war: they are not industrialised, they import their arms, they are surrounded by militarily ready nations, some of whom are clearly more deadly then they are (eg. Russia, Israel, Turkey, even Syria). They possess no navy, no airforce - at least not since they tried to hide in Iran and that country decided to keep the planes. In short, if they are to attack anyone, then it will have to be with the purported weapons of mass destruction that Saddam is thought to be hiding. Now, Saddam is vicious, but is he insane? Even the Nazis, some of whom were decidedly lunatic, made no attempt to use the mountains of nerve gas and biological toxins they'd heaped up, not even when their nation was utterly destroyed.
I am suspicious of American motives in wanting to wage this war so directly, but at the same time, I reluctantly agree that it is in Australia's national interests to play the good satellite, not because Iraq has anything to do with us, but because we may need the umbrella of US power one day.
