AMI in the media, page-25

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform

23 June 2025
Macquarie notes management at Aurelia Metals has delayed positive free cash flow expectations to FY28, roughly 12 months later than previously forecast by the broker, due to higher operating costs and weaker by-product pricing. The company's investor day included new FY26 guidance and FY27-28 outlook, with group operating costs around 20% above prior Macquarie estimates.

Production is expected to ramp to circa 40kt copper equivalent by FY28 via a centralised facility at the Peak operations explains the analyst.

Macquarie acknowledges the company's solid balance sheet, with $107m in cash and no debt, providing flexibility to self-fund growth.

Macquarie lowers its target price to 25c from 32c on reduced earnings forecasts and maintains an Outperform rating.

In another note quoting Macquarie: Aurelia Metals is likely to reach an inflection point for positive free cash flow in FY 2028, says Macquarie. That is 12 months later than the bank had originally assumed. It comes after Aurelia's investor day highlighted higher-than-expected operating costs and weaker by-products over the next two years. Still, gold production is set to increase during that time frame. "We cut our target price by 22% to A$0.25 due to earnings and valuation downgrades," Macquarie says. It retains an outperform call on the stock.


Moelis rates (AMI) Buy - This report was published on June 19, 2025.

Aurelia Metals published FY26 production guidance and targets for FY27-28, and Moelis notes the guidance ranges are within its estimates.

The company also provided costs and capital forecasts, with both significantly higher than the broker's forecast. FY26 operating cost guidance of -$275-315m compared with the broker's estimate of -$250m, while capex of -$125m at midpoint is higher than the broker's forecast of -$80m.

The broker expects to lift cost estimates, which makes its 20% FY26 free cash flow yield unlikely, though this would be partly offset by higher commodity prices.

Buy. Target unchanged at 40c.

This report was published on June 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.195 If AMI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).