Thanks Brianchu for sharing your work. While you are a one man...

Thanks Brianchu for sharing your work. While you are a one man band and can't do everything i think it is important in the case of AMI to look forward to see what the company looks like in 6 to 12 months time.
While this entails a degree of speculation it is what the market does and it is eventually reflected in the companies valuation.
I think for the purposes of AMI the first quarter of this calendar year can be largely discounted as at the Peak they transited to contract labour and from memory 60% of the workforce chose not to join Pybar. They also had union trouble no doubt caused by some of the workforce losing their relatively cushy numbers. At Hera they were mining lower grade ore.
As it takes time to recruit and train new miners this quarter at the Peak may be down a little although the company has said that the changeover is largely complete.
Moving forward I do not think enough has been made of the plant upgrade to 800,000tpa at the Peak which is only 6 to 9 months away. Also, looking again at the latest investor review there seems to be a change of emphasis on plans going forward.
Of particular note it states on page 6 that AMI will focus on margin over volume or commodity preference.
On page 18 it states that the Pb/Zn plant will "enable treatment of high margin Pb/Zn ore at a 800,000tpa throughput rate"
On page 17 the Net Smelter Return for the Chronos Pb/Zn reserves are slightly higher than the NSR for the Peak gold reserves so does that mean they only process Pb/Zn for a while.
If you look back at the Chronos Resources, Reserves and Mining Inventory Summery for Pb/Zn at 30 June 2018 it has reserves at 532K at a NSR at A$262 and Inventory of 759K at NSR at A$238/t giving a total of 1291K at a NSR of A$248/t. Given they have given a NSR for the inventory they must be reasonably confident of recovering same. ( as an aside I have a reasonably comprehensive model on AMI and their NSR is a little lower than I would have predicted but depends on recoveries and other assumptions )
Given the high grade exploration results at Chronos this FY and also at the Peak Deaps it would seem reasonable that there could be around 2mt of high grade Pb/Zn at a NSR of around A$250/t. ( Could a mining engineer have a stab at a figure as it is not my field)
Moving on, if you are processing 800K of Pb/Zn at a NSR of A$250/t that is $200m pa for 2.5 years.
The upgraded reserve figures to be published next month will give a better picture of tonnage NSR etc.
Is it any wonder that Great Cobar has been put on the back burner as there are riches galore nearby and the Chronos feed has already been developed so the cash has already been spent. However, Great Cobar is still in their plans as they are going to get water from there during the development phase according to the investor presentation.

If the company decides to go for say a 400K Pb/Zn and 400K gold pa, the Zn/Pb credits plus the other credits in the gold will reduce the AISC to a very low figure indeed at the Peak.

The above is just food for thought and any comments appreciated. A lot needs to be followed up with the company. I have asked Cobb to ring as he is doing investor relations but no response as yet. If anyone has contacts at the company would be interested in what they have to say.