I think this year will still be messy in terms of P&L.
Still a bit to work through with respect to remediations (although they have done more than the other major players) and a fair chunk of re-structuring (cost base) going on, accompanied with separation costs.
Longer-term the business units should get back to around the $300-$400m mark. (Granted they will be splintered due to the spin-off).
It wouldn't surprise me if the units end up producing a bit more than the above figure, but I'm reluctant to take too much of an optimistic view.
Re the Ares stuff. It's fair for DD to include customers/clients etc, realistically that's where all the value resides so it needs to be the focus. That's pretty standard and what any acquirer would insist upon it. The issue I have is that not once, but twice, prior to the DD being allowed, Ares had given AMP a bait and switch only to get what they finally indicated they wanted from the deal (Private markets, where the big valuations for fund managers reside). Step 1 being the Ares offer for the whole business, despite no ability to consummate it (ie operate a domestic bank), which was rescinded in the early morning prior to results release (intended to inflict maximum damage on AMP one might wonder) and Step 2 being the Ares interest in AMP Capital as a whole. So I contend, that when you are dealing with a counter-party who has twice changed the terms on you, I wouldn't be then letting them under the hood unless the deal was extremely compelling or the terms very firm.
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