AMP Chart, page-64

Yes, I am afraid that looking just at a chart or dividend is not a great way to evaluate the future price and overall likely future return of AMP.

Telstra used dividends to keep price up for a long time. It did not keep value up in long term.

I keep going back to a value of the parts of AMP. Based on this the value can go either way from here.

Just look at the so called “jewel in the crown” - AMP Capital - which they value at about $3 billion. 20% of this is owned by a Japanese firm, so their “jewel” is only worth $2.5 billion, and this value is dependent upon support by their 3,000 advisers.

In effect the market has decided that AMP is now worth about 70% of what it was worth before it faced brand damage, loss of investment mandates, loss of advisers, loss of clients, potential legal payments to ASIC, compensation to clients, potential class action compensation, cost of distraction, higher operating costs to ensure compliance, potential lost revenue due to dismantling of vertical integration. Some significant value has been lost and still certain to be lost. There is still some potential for significant loss. The 70% of previous value prices this in. It is not likely to suddenly jump up to 90% of the previous value would be my view. This may be the new medium term price position.