"A sale a year from now would not have cost them"
I'm not sure anyone can be 100% certain of this. There's a clear divestment strategy at play here by the major Banks and now AMP to get out of this industry. It's been well documented that the O/S players can compete more cost effectively in this space. Maybe AMP's 170 years worth history and knowledge on where the market might be heading in this space led them to believe that now was the right time.
"Since announcing this sale $2 billion has been wiped off their value"
Yes the market has savaged the SP. That's a fact. But what if they held onto it for a further 12 months and there were even less buyers in the market/further deterioration/increase provisions for loss. The multiple for the sale might have been even less. Would the market have then not been saying "why didn't you sell when you could have gotten X - and now you're left with Y". What groups such as Merlon fail to recognise is that something is worth only what someone is prepared to pay for it. Doesn't matter what it's listed on the balance sheet as. It might have been overstated previously....who knows....and maybe the share price was inflated because of it. But by moving away from this line of business it should put AMP in a strong position (both financially and that they're a more simplified business) to get through any outcomes of the RC and invest into other growth areas of the business.
"A tidying up for sale?"
When all is said and done I believe this is the underlying reason for the sale now/at that price. We won't know until/if it eventuates. But they sure ain't going to put that out there in the market until the 'i's' are dotted and 't's' are crossed on a HOA to move forward with a sale. If I was a buyer I'd be telling AMP to go away and clean up their room, put their toys away (sell the ones they don't want to play with anymore) and then check back in 12 months time for an update.
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