Hey Helmich
Rather than you trawl through old posts and try to set some form of arbitrary point in time where you claim to be correct, let's see if you're prepared to stand behind your opinions.
Put simply:
I propose from here, AMP at 96.5c.
Let's do a personal total return swap.
I take the long side.
You take the short side.
I recall you prophesying that AMP was worth somewhere between $0.60 and $0.90. So I'm sure this type of trade is something you're comfortable with.
To make it worth our time, I propose it for a simple $100,000.
5 year duration.
So in 5 year, if AMP is down, I pay you the difference as if you had taken the short side.
If AMP happens, by chance, to be up, you have to pay me as if I had taken the long side.
The positions must be adjusted for:
a. Demerger (so the total return will be evaluated on the basis of owning AMP in its entirety today, assuming demerger goes ahead, both demerged units in real assets co and AMP Limited will contribute to the total return or total loss you will be so dearly hoping for).
b. Dividends
c. Capital returns
If at the end of 5 years, AMP and de-merged co are combined worth 48.25c (assuming there has been no dividends, capital returns etc), I will pay you $50,000.
If however, at the end of 5 years AMP and de-merged co is worth $1.4475 (assuming there has been no dividends, capital returns etc), you will pay me $50,000.
If AMP and de-merged co were worth $1.4475 and had paid $0.20 in dividends combined over 5 years, then you would have to pay me $64,750 plus we would then assume that the dividends and/or capital return were reinvested a the prevailing price on the ex-div/capital return day.
I will insist on a personal guarantee. I will also offer a personal guarantee for the full value of the contract.
I will have
@rcman as a witness to the contract, whom I don't know by the way. You can have one of the other commentators that share your pessimistic view of AMP.
To be fair, I propose we split the legal fees of properly documenting this.
For the avoidance of any doubt, this will require you to publicly disclose yourself, your address and you will have to declare that you have no conflict, ie you cannot be a staff member of AMP or an associate etc etc. I will have to make the exact same declarations.
(20min delay)