Hi Supermajor - I am not really making a direct comparison with...

Hi Supermajor - I am not really making a direct comparison with RIA and NEN at all. Actually - the fact that ENI are the operator in NEN's case makes me far more comfortable than RIA who seemed pretty cocky and went it alone - and seriously destroyed shareholder value. At least ENI are making decisions on technical merit and not as a result of market pressure (as I think was RIA's case)

You are correct that NEN is 150M at the moment - and I think if it tests well there is a great chance it will get towards 500M - which equates to about 80c.

These are my calculations to get to that number:
Current issued - 550M
CR to raise $20M at 40c = 50M new shares
Total issued = 600M shares which at 80c is $480M market cap

For the buying to really start and drive the share price towards 80c there not only needs to be funding (i.e. a new CR), but also a forward plan. If the JV announce one or two new wells next year and NEN has the funding to pay for them - then I think you will see a steady rise. Not full value as many in these threads are proposing, but maybe 40-50% of implied value.

70-80% of full value will possibly be achieved on either a sale or takeover (remember the purchaser also needs a return!) - but that is some way off in my opinion. NEN needs to try and last through the next two years without being outspent....and if they can do that and steadily increase the value of this thing, I would think it would be "hasta luego mi amigos" with the blessing of the Board!

I'll be happy with 35-40c over the next two weeks on the lead up to the test results.... A dry hole at 120 is the downside risk to the share price in the short term though....

Great advice from a few posters lately - DON'T BET THE HOUSE ON THIS!!