"........... With Relyvrio out of the way. Basically leaves...

"........... With Relyvrio out of the way. Basically leaves ourselves v Riluzole and Radicava. Riluzole increases median survival by up to 19 months . ............"

Howdy kpax. Certainly an interesting development. Not intended as a challenge to your statement, years have taught me very few things are as simple as they may first appear. So without intending to up or down ramp a couple of observations that hopefully contribute to the conversation.

It is at least some limited comfort to those already suffering from this horrendous disease that there at least some products already on market and I can bet there are those who have received some benefit from Relyvrio so personally I am very sorry this has gone the way it appears to have. Meantime PAA's MPL can certainly provide early signs of hope for others and very much appears to have already provided meaningful upside to at least 12 patients. Lets hope no matter how things progress there are a lot more people and there families who ultimately benefit.

From a purely commercial perspective I have real difficulty envisaging MPL staying in the hands of PAA - certainly as we know it. These early stage MND trial results for MPL come off the back of other earlier trails and general indications that this compound may well have significant reach into a significant number of targeted applications that include diseases currently without other effective treatment. We also have pretty significant confirmation that unlike many medications, PAA's MPL has minimal toxicity / negative side effects in both animals and humans.

The usual path for such a new drug would be the phs 2 then 3 to confirm both tolerability & efficacy across a broad spectrum and hopefully somewhere along the line receive either a partner or TO offer. - Even if PAA could (which is not possible) take this to market, unless existing holders were willing to commit further huge sums of money to further buying, we would all be well and truly diluted out of our positions. That aside I am not sure enough attention has been paid to the potential ramifications of the ODD application already in progress.

Looking back at notes, think it is really (other than clues handed out by MT) only NZT who appears to have landed on this square. WITHIN the next 90 days we will learn whether the FDA approves the ODD application already in progress. For my money at least, this has to be a real inflection point. Again as NZT has pointed out, at that point every (not just some) BP will be directly aware (and not generally relying on news media of any sort) what PAA have in their bag and about 3 seconds later all the trials and tribulation undertaken to get to that point. There are people within BP who are employed to do nothing other than hunt for opportunities that have real upside - potential high revenue that can be captured at relatively low cost.

OK, 90 days is a fair time for the prices to go up down or sideways and I know the old saying of only fools attempt to catch a falling knife however personally would not be so comfortable attempting to catch a bouncing knife either especially when that 90 days is the outer limit. We know there is work being done to check the crossing of "T's & dotting of "I"'s in the ODD submission already in play and that this could go to FDA any day so that the outer limit of 90 days could be significantly truncated. It appears reasonable, to me at least, that approval of this ODD application may just become the leverage point required to get some sort of deal over the line. What I have a problem with is that on that basis any offer would include a forward role for the existing PAA.

I am very happy that my holding is already fixed for this stock so that I can sit and wait. If the above logic plays out there will be some people standing at metaphoric train platform who will be left behind without notice. On the other hand I have concern that some of the more optimistic price assumptions may prove to be just that - optimistic, though maybe I will be the one happily disproven.

Finally, IF I am reading the tea leaves all wrong and the ODD applications comes without any interesting follow up then the question becomes how to raise sufficient funds in a very short time to complete the IND and get on with the phs2/3 trial. Again, just for my money management appears to be very calm in this regard so I have to wonder if this is a clue !
No science, no inside info so all just opinion !!