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An angel speculates FBR outcomes, page-5

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MadDog12

1,777 Posts.

468

09/08/21

16:10

Post #: 55146272
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Originally posted by Armsofanangel: ↑

A number of Hot Copperites have encouraged me to speculate... so here you have it ... on its own thread.

Okay let me speculate ... As our visitor said he was from Germany ... Germany to me spells Weinerberger ... if so we should expect to see the 3rd build in Wellard using the WB bricks ... as that build is with Dale Alcock Homes so more likely to try a new style clay product. Inspiration Homes (who I've never hard off) are possibly more likely to try out the Xella lime silica blocks which Dale Alcock for as long as I remember has never used.As for 2 story design.... has anyone visiting the sites seen any two story designs... from my memory Wellard was more single storey... if double then probably another of Dale Alcock building companies APG homes or W&B.. would be used.

I would prefer the first commercialising deal is with WB for Europe but due to travel restrictions wouldn't be surprised if it is in Perth ... it could well be Dale Alcock as he already owns ABN Roofing which installs coloubond steel roofing to companies within the ABN Group OR Even more likely is Brickworks as they have been the largest of all Angel investors since 2006/7. The already offer roof as a service RaaS through subsidiary Bristile Roofing where you buy roof tiles and install.The reason for the cancellation of the first JV is Brickworks reluctance to take the HX out on site as fast as FBR have done... I'm sure Brickworks have been watching the first 4 actual builds and know that FBR is ready for the next step. Whom ever it is will have to pony up the funding to build the first fleet of HX'S... and once done, then we are proving the concept of offering WaaS through JV entities in Europe, USA, Mexico and Gulf regions ... all of whom would fund the production of the first fleet of machines for their own regions ... this has been speculated by many on this forum already ... it's just a question if Mike can do a deal before needing another CR ... he has said since the roadshow that the intention was to get new machines funded by JV partners. Pie in the sky speculating ... use of DST in other applications.

I don't see licensing deals for DST in the short-term as they would have to let the genie out of the black box .... and if they were going to do that it would have been with CAT and by now you'd have some licensing income but more likely reverse engineered DST copies being used by CAT and others with no royalties paid to FBR.

In the past people have criticised the Pivacs for performance shares allocated somewhat dubiously ... but think about how many shares they and all angels left on the table which could have been allocated via royalties to gain $10 million revenue last year ... you can't tell me CAT wouldn't have slung in what would have been chump change for access to DST ... thus the reason FBR left the JV.

I believe we will see other robotic technologies out of FBR following closely behind the first JV announcement but what will they be.... Well for me there are two front runners and both compliment the HX ... one being a rendering robot and the other a roof tile stacking robot.

Let's consider the renderer... we have all seen the toothpaste 3D machines trying to compete with HX. What I see is a similar material being mixed in a standard concrete mixing truck with a modified concrete pump with a front end robot attached which simply squeezes the toothpaste onto a squeegee / trowel applicator arm and wipes on the render utilising DST for mm accuracy. FBR could then offer RaaS or render as a service and guess what ??? Through the same JV partners who funded the HX roll-out... and all the while keeping the DST secrets in house.

With the roof tile stacker, how hard would it be to modify the current HX to feed roof tiles through the same boom and instead of applying adhesive the robot simply nails each tile in place... you'd even swap the laying head for the rendering head to concrete in the ridge capping.This robot would fit in well with Brickworks and Bristile roofing as an RTaaS or roof tile as a service and again keeping the DST secrets in house.

Now remember the old Swiss army knife ... well what's to stop a Boffin like Mark Pivac from putting all 3 applications in the one machine ... the block stacker with an open boom to allow larger blocks ... and adjustable grabbers for picking up either block or roof tile ... a retrofit front end for fitting and nailing tiles.An attachment hose and retrofit robotic front end for toothpaste render... Could this be the HX 111?Imagine the savings for roof safe scaffolding alone, safety as no more falling off roofs or high scaffolding...

Why stop there what about an extrusion machine which extrudes gutters and down pipes and fits them on-site.

The usual trolls will say ... it will never pass approval processes but then HX has proven them wrong...

Good luck to all and DYO research... this is all speculation not advice.

Expand

thanks mate for your very well thought out post.
I always look forward to hearing your views on fbr because they are always very informed and well though out.

I would really benefit from understanding a bit more about your investment process:
1) what is your upside price target on fbr and what are your thought on timing?
2) how much as a % does fbr represent of your portfolio?
what other stocks are you invested in?
3) what types of companies do you look for, for investment, and do you have a particular screening process?

thanks mate…

FBR Price at posting: 4.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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