I think your points are all valid..the game has changed bigtime
Where BBG Limited might have the edge is the fact that they no longer sell just Billabong..
Yes they are youth/casual orientated but they have a massive range of lables..across continents and demographics
They need to restructure..they need to reign in costs but now that the share price has been gutted..there is value there
Billabong are unique compared to other Aussie retailers and that is why I think they will fight back..that is why I have put my money into it..they have a brand that just needs to be re positioned..
There is always the risk that their newly aquired debt will prove too much of a burden and earnings will not be sufficient.. EOFY 2011 report stated that interest was covered 6.1 times by earnings with the corresponding period at 12.1 times..which is more a function of increasing debt than earnings being halved..just shows how dangerous declining sales can be to debt funded expansion..
I believe this will be a dividend killer in the short term but will not be the end of the company..
DYOR
BBG Price at posting:
$1.45 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held